April sees solar prices plummet in Nigeria

From the newsletter

Data tracked by Renewables Rising throughout March to April 2025 indicates a 3% decrease in Nigeria's solar panel retail prices when measured in local currency. In contrast, South Africa experienced a slight 1% price increase due to ongoing power cuts. Kenya and Egypt demonstrated stability, holding steady amidst the fluctuating regional landscape.

• The drop in Nigerian solar panel prices reflects rising competition, forcing suppliers to cut prices. Growing demand for off-grid solutions has attracted more players, growing market offerings and pushing prices down.

• Defying a global trend of falling solar prices, South Africa's market is seeing an increase, directly fuelled by its load shedding crisis, which peaked at a record 6,000 MW last month. Energy insecurity, compounded by a recent 12.7% electricity tariff hike, boosted demand for independent solar solutions.

More details

• We tracked four products, namely solar home systems, solar panels, lithium-ion batteries and inverters, across representative countries in different regions of Africa: Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt.

• The data is not conclusive and only shows an overview of what is happening in these countries.

• South Africa's tracked data reveals a subtle but consistent upward pressure across solar home systems, lithium-ion batteries, inverters, and solar panels. Over half the listed products experienced price increases in April, even if marginal. Crucially, no tracked product saw a price decrease. This points to a gently inflating market intensified by the country's ongoing energy crisis. The absence of price reductions shows resilient demand despite potential economic troubles, further solidifying the impact of load shedding and rising tariffs on consumer behaviour.

• Nigeria presents a stark contrast, with no tracked solar product registering a price increase in April. All recorded changes were decreases, reflecting the impact of currency devaluation and mounting market pressure. The sharp drop across a range of products from full systems to individual components highlights how suppliers are adjusting prices to cope with higher import costs and increased competition amid rising off-grid demand. This dynamic underscores how economic factors are reshaping the renewable energy market in real time.

• Kenya demonstrates remarkable price stability across the tracked solar product categories, with the majority remaining unchanged between March and April. This stability indicates the country's significant progress in electrification, nearing universal access in urban centres, and actively pursuing rural expansion. Furthermore, Kenya's proactive stance in developing large-scale solar projects in the pipeline, like the 3.2 MW Two Rivers rooftop project, the largest rooftop solar residential and commercial solar installation in East Africa by Centum Re, and its widespread adoption of renewables create a predictable and less volatile market. This mature renewable energy landscape fosters price equilibrium, unlike regions facing more acute energy challenges or policy shifts.

• Egypt mirrors Kenya's stability, perhaps even more pronounced, with the tracked solar product prices showing minimal fluctuations between March and April. This consistent pricing shows a stable and well-established renewable energy market. The lack of significant price changes indicates a balance between supply and demand, potentially driven by consistent government policies and a predictable market environment. This stability also reflects a more centralised renewable energy sector compared to its regional neighbours.

Our take

• Nigeria’s solar price drop is a fragile relief. The current 3% decline in solar prices offers short-term savings, but it’s driven by a weakening Naira and intense competition in a growing off-grid market. These conditions are unsustainable, margins are shrinking, and import costs are rising. Without a stable currency or scaled-up local manufacturing, prices could rebound sharply.

• African solar product prices are driven by economic pressure and energy insecurity. In Nigeria, currency devaluation and growing off-grid demand are pushing prices down amid intense competition. In South Africa, persistent load shedding is fuelling demand and driving prices up. These local dynamics are shaping markets more than global trends.

• The stable solar prices in Kenya and Egypt highlight the benefits of consistent, long-term planning. Kenya's high electrification and proactive projects create a balanced market. Egypt's centralised approach fosters stability. Their success contrasts sharply with the volatility caused by Nigeria's policy shift and South Africa's energy crisis, demonstrating the importance of steady governance in renewables.