Tanzania's largest hydro plant nears completion

From the newsletter

Tanzania’s  $2.8 billion Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP) is 99.8% complete. Once fully operational it will boost national electricity capacity by 150% producing 2.1 GW of electricity for Tanzanians, enough to meet the current peak demand of 1.9 GW supporting industrialisation and economic development.

• While hydropower currently provides 17% of Africa’s power, the continent holds the world’s largest untapped hydropower potential, with 90% of its capacity still undeveloped.

• For instance, only 2 GW of hydropower was added to the existing 40 GW  in 2023, a significantly slower pace compared to solar which increased more than 8% from 2022. 

More details

• Eight turbines of the JNHPP are now operational, contributing 1.88 GW to the national grid. The plant generates about 3.1 billion kilowatt-hours which accounts for over 40% of Tanzania's total electricity production.

• Final JNHPP turbine trials are scheduled between February 25th and March 10th, aiming to achieve the full 2.1 GW capacity. This will increase the national grid's electricity generation to 4 GW.

• JNHPP has seen rapid progress, advancing from 33% completion in 2019 to 99.8% in 2025. The project's total estimated cost is $2.8 billion, with $2.7 billion already disbursed, representing 95.8% of the total expenditure.

• Tanzania's strategic objectives include increasing power generation to 5 GW by the end of 2025, a goal that will significantly impact the country's industrialisation. In addition to expanding its own power generation, Tanzania has sought regulatory approval to import 0.1 GW from Ethiopia via the Kenyan grid. Kenya recently completed a 500 kV transmission line from Ethiopia, which can transfer 2 GW of electricity, and also a 400 kV transmission line to Tanzania, also with a 2 GW capacity.

• As a member of the East African Power Pool, Tanzania stands to benefit from exporting excess electricity and importing it when there is a shortage of supply. It is also connected to the Southern African Power Pool through a transmission line to Zambia, which is currently under construction with 34% progress.

• The Tanzanian government has developed its National Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP III) (2021-2026), which prioritises energy sector optimisation through increased generation capacity and improved transmission and distribution networks. It is one of the countries selected for World Bank funding under the mission to electrify 300 million Africans by 2030.

• Under this programme, Tanzania intends to open its electricity network to private sector investment. To facilitate this, the country plans to undertake a pilot independent power transmission (IPT) project by 2027 and establish a framework for future investments by 2028. 

• Furthermore, Tanzania aims to establish a Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REI4P) by June 2026. These initiatives are designed to help achieve a 75% share of renewables in the energy mix by 2030, up from the current 62%. This ambitious plan includes the installation of 463 MW of solar, 500 MW of wind, 130 MW of geothermal, and 880 MW of large hydropower.

Our take

• No renewables revolution will happen in Africa if we continue neglecting hydropower. The African Union's goal of 300 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 will not happen either.

• Solar's speed is seductive, but hydropower's reliability is strategic. Africa needs a power portfolio, not just a single star. Diversification is the key to energy resilience in the face of climate change and fluctuating global markets.

• Tanzania's JNHPP proves Africa can deliver mega-projects. Now, we must ensure these giants benefit all, not just a few. Because true progress is measured by its impact on the lives of everyday citizens, not just national statistics.